Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GAMANE-24 in Madagascar from 25 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC to 27 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMANE-24

in Madagascar

27 Mar 2024 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GAMANE-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	560 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (28 Mar 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 26 Mar 2024 18:00 - 27 Mar 2024 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	84 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

84 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	211	4.4 million	3 thousand	Madagascar
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	179	2.2 million	440 thousand	Madagascar
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	95	4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	190	3.3 million	580 thousand	Madagascar
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	190	3.8 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	190	2.9 million	300 thousand	Madagascar
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	169	1.9 million	180 thousand	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	148	2.3 million	400 thousand	Madagascar
9	27 Mar 2024 12:00	106	3 million	560 thousand	Madagascar
10	27 Mar 2024 18:00	84	4.6 million	560 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.5
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	200000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.1
2	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-12.8, 51.1
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.3 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 50.9
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	4 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-12.5, 50.9
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.4 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-12.4, 50.6
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	Category 1	127	no people	490000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-12.4, 50.6
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	Category 1	148	100000 people	1.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.7, 50.4
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Category 2	169	180000 people	1.8 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-12.9, 50	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	Category 1	148	410000 people	2.1 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.9, 49.7	Madagascar
9	27 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	2.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-13.4, 49.1	Madagascar
10	27 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	3 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-13.8, 49.2	Madagascar
10	28 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-14.4, 49.5	Madagascar
10	28 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	700000 people	Overland Depression	56	-15.4, 50.2	Madagascar
10	29 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	700000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-16.1, 51
10	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-16.3, 51.9
10	30 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-17, 53.1
10	30 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-17.9, 54.2
10	31 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.3 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.9, 55.7
10	31 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-19.7, 57.1
10	01 Apr 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-20.3, 58.3
10	01 Apr 2024 18:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-21.3, 60.1

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	3.2 million people
Mauritius	1.2 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	2 million people
Mahajanga	Madagascar	700000 people
Toamasina	Madagascar	470000 people
Mauritius	Mauritius	1.2 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambilobe	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	14000 people
Ambanja	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Antseranana	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Port Louis		Mauritius	Capital	150000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ampampamena		15				0
Ambilobe Mahavavy	AMB	22	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Doany	DOA	unknown				0
Ambanja	IVA	11	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Bealanana	WBE	1120				0
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Nosy Be Fascene	NOS	10	Civ.	Paved	No	7100
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Antsiranana Arrachart	DIE	114	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Antsiranana Andrakaka		61	Mil.	Paved	No	8200
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Antsohihy Ambalabe	WAI	28	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Analalava	HVA	105	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Anahidrano		60				0
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Sainte Marie	SMS	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3300
Plaisance International	MRU	57	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Port St. Louis	MGPSL	Madagascar
Vohemar		Madagascar
Nossi-Be	MGNOS	Madagascar
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar
Maromandia		Madagascar
Cap Diego		Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Antsiranana	MGDIE	Madagascar
Analalava		Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Cape Amber		Madagascar
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Saint Mary Island		Madagascar
Port Sainte Marie		Madagascar
Port Louis	MUPLU	Mauritius
Mahebourg		Mauritius

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Ampisikanana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 28 Mar 2024 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (98 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 27 Mar 2024 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Mar 2024 01:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.6
	27 Mar 2024 19:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.4
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Lokia	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 09:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 12:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 12:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 12:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 23:00	Ambolobozokely	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 23:00	Irodo	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 23:00	Ambaritsatrana	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 11:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampondrabe	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 11:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 10:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 10:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 14:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 14:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 14:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 14:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 19:00	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 19:00	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 07:00	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 11:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 11:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 17:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 09:00	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 17:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 13:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 11:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 21:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 21:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 20:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 09:00	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 00:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.